Post-PE2011: On 4-way fights, run-offs and predictions for the future

The 4 Tans and 4 Mrs Tans

The PE2011 has come and gone. Analysts will dissect and speculate for years to come.

We will be going quiet for now, having (in the words of one email) “brought a breath of lighthearted fresh air and commentary”.

But before we go, here are a few juicy thoughts:

• What kind of result do we expect in a 4-way fight?
• A look at the American Presidential Election of 1912 which was a 4-way fight.
• Can a run-off election be more democratic than first-past-the-post?
• Our predictions for the future!

FIND OUT MORE

What kind of result do we expect in a 4-way fight?

In a 2-way contest, random voting would be expected to give 50:50. In many First World Parliaments overseas, 55% is considered a clear victory. 55 is one-tenth more than 50 — so let’s call this the one-tenth margin.

What about a 3-way contest? Rounding off the numbers, random voting would give 33:33:33. One-tenth margin in this case would be 3%. So anybody scoring 36% or more in a 3-way fight has done reasonably.

In a 4-way contest, the natural distribution of votes by chance would give 25:25:25:25. One-tenth margin here would be 2.5%.

Looking at the Singapore PE2011, we saw:

• Tan Cheng Bock (34.85% of valid votes)
• Tan Jee Say (25.04%)
• Tony Tan Keng Yam (35.20%)
• Tan Kin Lian (4.91%)

In summary, Tan Jee Say did no better than would have been expected with random voting. Not a triumph, but not a slap in the face either.

Tan Kin Lian lost big, achieving only 4.91% of the vote.

Tony Tan and Tan Cheng Bock both did very well, getting 35.20% and 34.85% respectively. Both scored much better than by chance.

An American Presidential Election with 4-way contest

The 1912 American Presidential Election was fought 4-ways. Wilson vs Roosevelt vs Taft vs Debs. The results were:

• Woodrow Wilson (41.8%)
• Theodore Roosevelt (27.4%)
• William Howard Taft (23.2%)
• Eugene V. Debs (6.0%)

Although Wilson did not get 50%, his result was considered a landslide victory.

Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize winner

Are Run-Off / Second-Round election systems more fair than First-Past-The-Post?

Kenneth Arrow is a Nobel Prize winner in Economics. One of his great works is Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem.

Arrow’s Theorem is complicated, but the essence is that: when you have 3 or more choices, no voting system can reliably convert individual voters’ ranking of candidates into a ranking result for the whole community.

Another way to look at First-Past-The-Post, is that when you have 3 or more candidates, “positive” votes towards a candidate count more than “negative” votes against a candidate. This is because the negative votes tend to be spread out among the other candidates.

i.e. The winning candidate has the highest number of “first choice” votes in First-Past-The-Post.

i.e. In comparison, with a run-off or second-round system, a candidate can win by elimination, even though everybody had him as 2nd choice.

Is it more “democratic” if everybody gets their 2nd choice but nobody gets their 1st choice? There is no simple answer. Arrow’s Theorem is just a mathematical proof – this deeper question is something Singaporeans must answer for ourselves.

Our Predictions For The Future

Crystal Ball

Here are our predictions for the next 6 years:

Tan Cheng Bock will continue his campaign for the next Presidential Election. His ongoing publicity activities and islandwide bus tour will be the first moves in his PE2017 campaign.

If Cheng Bock does not start his own political party, he will take up the role of “Shadow MP Mentor” to certain political parties, e.g. SPP whose Benjamin Pwee helped on Cheng Bock’s campaign. SMM Tan Cheng Bock (or is that S&M Cheng Bock?) will try to engineer a split in PAP, as a weakened PAP will better serve Cheng Bock’s personal ambitions.

Tan Jee Say will move towards the political centre and moderate his style, having discovered that an aggressive confrontational approach cost him votes. If Jee Say had taken a more controlled style, some of his votes would not have gone to Cheng Bock.

Tan Kin Lian may try for a comeback in a single seat come GE2016, but he will do his groundwork and homework better next time.

Tony Tan may prove to be the biggest surprise. After Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong, he is the most senior figure left from Singapore’s 1st and 2nd generation leadership, which makes him more senior in age and rank (as President) to anybody in the current Cabinet. Tony has made his money in the private sector with OCBC, and doesn’t need the presidential salary. He remains well regarded overseas, and does not need pomp and gala (although he should change his Casio watch more often than once every 30 years). Having run his own campaign and resigned from PAP, he is not beholden to any PAP leadership or Whip.

In a different era, there would have been one word to describe a man with no need for extra money, who is not beholden to any political party, and whose ego cannot be stroked by pomp and the prospect of a personal Istana.

Independent.

Only history will tell, but now that Tony Tan is in the Istana, we have no choice but to vest our hopes in him, and hope he does the right things for Singapore and Singaporeans.

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